Wannon – Australia 2025

There is a large fire burning in the Grampians, at the northern end of the electorate. Could this help the independent?

How does a fire help the independent unless the incumbent abandons his duties in the recovery.

@John I think what Darcy means is the climate change factor could help the independent.

I see what you’re saying but I personally don’t think it’ll make a difference.

I think the demographics changes are whats going to help the independent however, I personally feel that the whole independent wave peaked in 2022 with the exception of Bradfield I don’t think any other seats will fall to teal/independents this election cycle.

@nether it’s a bushfire bushes have been burning for as long as people here can remember. Climate change won’t away this election. This election is about cost of living. Tehan to retain easily.

@John I agree that it won’t change much here but I see why Darcy is asking.

I personally think economic issues are most at stake this election given how bad the economy is at the moment with the COL crisis and housing/rental prices and inflation. Only affluent or inner-city voters will be not concerned about the economy this time around.

It’s a good point that many people, especially in this seat that can be quite marginalised, will care about the economy. I think Dyson is going to significantly increase his vote, but only from Labor and Greens. This is a bit like how some areas that were well burnt during the Black Summer, while voting as normal over 50 percent for the Coalition, had the Greens come second behind Labor.

A fire nearly ran through Beaufort township (northern end of the electorate) earlier this year and believe me no one in town was whining about climate change, even the local greenies were mostly concerned simply with how many burned trees the council were removing from roadsides.

Dyson is popular in Warrnambool but his 2pp was flattered by some very poor preference flow to Tehan in 2022, Tehan to retain on a similar or slightly larger margin this time

Accept high interest rates and col pressures are a problem for Labor.
So what does Dutton do?
He promised no sugar hits ie assistance re specific prices.
Will the Reserve bank be requested to lose it’s independence and cut interest rates?
Of interest in this seat the non liberal vote in Ararat could grow!

Getting Liberal fliers in the mail that essentially call Dyson a ‘teal’ and now one today about some random old remark he made about changing the date of Australia Day – culture wars are on!

Already getting Dyson ads on youtube too

Mr Dyson did well along with Coast. Portland Warnambool and probably broke even in Hamilton. Which are how Labor would win if they had the capacity but they are at least 5% sway from this.

There are teal-ish areas along the Great Ocean Road and there’s strong support in Dyson’s hometown of Warrnambool. However, his vote inland is quite weak. I don’t know where Dyson lives but I think he’d stand a much better chance in the state seat of Polwarth, which overlaps with the eastern part of Wannon.

@Votante
Dyson lives in Woodford, just inland from Warrnambool, from memory.

Not sure I can conflate Teals in Regional Area with Teals in Inner Cities because I feel they are more ‘Country-Minded Independents’ focusing on local issues and given regional seats voted heavily No on the Voice, it is much harder to portray Dutton as a social conservative unlike the Inner-city Teals.

@Witness, got it. If Dyson is living in Woodford or Warrnambool then Polwarth, the state seat, is out of scope unless he moves. His identity is associated with Warrnambool. Polwarth on paper appears like a better teal target as it’s an ‘always Liberal’ seat with a strong, emerging Green vote.

Polwarth moving east into the surf coast is what’s doing that rather than the demographics shifting underneath the Liberals feet like in Kooyong for example. Polwarth is centred on Colac and the surrounding dairy farming land but increasingly the Geelong/surf coast edge has been going down the toilet for the Liberals while the Labor/greens brand has been strengthening due to tree/sea-changers and young families moving in. Neither parts of the district lend themselves to the typical teal profile IMO

Marginal LNP vs ALP seats make for bad teal/independent targets anyway as Labor wouldn’t want to just run dead in them if they are not far from taking the seat for themselves. See Hawthorn 2022 (and likely a bunch of federal seats later this year…)

Polwarth.. the margin last state election approx 2% lib. This seat is 1 to 2 elections away from being a 50/50 seat.

If Alex Dyson is to win this seat, this is the election that he’s going to do it. He’s everywhere and his campaign have set up and are staffing field offices across the electorate – which as a campaign development is huge. This and Bradfield will be independent gains IMO.

How does his current campaign compare to that of 2022?

If Dyson beats Tehan in this seat then I reckon alarms will be deafening at Liberal HQ. To pull off an upset against a former cabinet and current shadow cabinet minister would be extraordinary, so extraordinary that I just don’t think it will happen.

I’d say marginal Liberal hold but if Dyson gets in then the Liberals can kiss goodbye to Minority government.

The thing is with time the electorate will need ti include more of the surf coast Geelong over spill and Ballarat excess..All those areas hurt the liberal vote. Mallee will probably acquire Hamilton and other rural areas from this electorate asit will lose population as well

Dyson running a much bigger campaign, the focus is very much not on certain issues (climate, integrity etc) but there is a huge focus on ‘community’ ‘local issues’ etc and basically making the case for having an unaligned indi in there instead of a major party. Liberals are trying to portray him as a progressive with anti-Australia Day views etc.

Suspect with his profile and the general awareness of the teals Dyson can expect a much improved primary (30-35%) but probably less favourable preference flows. So long as Tehan keeps his primary around 43% or so I reckon he’ll be fine

“huge focus on ‘community’ ‘local issues’ etc”

So nothing then? Just flim flam and motherhood statements rather than anything specific?

There was another independent running last time who won about 2.3% of the vote. For Dyson to get to 30-35% he would need to pickup those votes and reduce Labor to single figures. Otherwise really eat into Tehans primary vote big time. Has Tehan done anything to specifically get voters off side? That was where Sophie Mirabella, Tony Abbott and to some extent Tim Wilson came unstuck. Independents can get talked up as well – Carol Altmann was talked up in South West Coast at the last state election – but only managed 14% and a poor third.

The current claim is that this is the ‘listening’ part of the campaign – he’s making a lot of vague promises to fix the roads and such but really the issues that got teals elected (climate in particular) he’s been very silent on. No substantive policy claims from what I see (and he’s spending up a storm on social media.

I agree re: the standing of the sitting MP, Dyson’s supporters say he’s a bit of a do-nothing MP but I don’t think he’s uniquely unpopular and I doubt he’ll lose much primary (if any) to Dyson in this cycle. The swing to the Liberals in South West Coast in the VIC election certainly makes for an interesting dynamic given that’s where Dyson’s heartland is.